Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1405 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 1405 CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 419 CLT 20:46 → DTW 22:34 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1405 Delta Flight history →	CLT 06:00	DTW 07:42	6%	3%	0.7%	94%
DL 1639 Delta Flight history →	CLT 09:42	DTW 11:30	9%	3%	0.7%	91%
AA 1791 American Flight history →	CLT 07:28	DTW 09:17	11%	3%	0.7%	90%
DL 2684 Delta Flight history →	CLT 13:17	DTW 15:00	14%	3%	0.7%	77%
AA 1781 American Flight history →	CLT 11:15	DTW 13:01	15%	4%	0.7%	80%
DL 1430 Delta Flight history →	CLT 17:02	DTW 18:52	18%	5%	0.7%	67%
AA 1770 American Flight history →	CLT 13:43	DTW 15:31	18%	4%	0.7%	69%
AA 1794 American Flight history →	CLT 17:25	DTW 19:18	23%	6%	0.7%	62%
AA 370 American Flight history →	CLT 22:51	DTW 00:41	23%	6%	0.7%	76%
AA 419 American Flight history →	CLT 20:46	DTW 22:34	25%	6%	0.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON