Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 798 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 798 CLT 07:00 → EWR 08:59 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2794 CLT 20:06 → EWR 22:12 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 798 United Flight history →	CLT 07:00	EWR 08:59	5%	2%	0.8%	90%
AA 1782 American Flight history →	CLT 08:00	EWR 09:59	8%	3%	0.9%	86%
UA 3448 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 11:10	EWR 13:16	10%	4%	1.3%	90%
AA 1819 American Flight history →	CLT 10:43	EWR 12:37	11%	4%	0.9%	87%
UA 3450 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 14:35	EWR 16:40	22%	5%	1.3%	84%
UA 3456 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 15:55	EWR 18:01	23%	6%	1.3%	77%
UA 3468 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 17:51	EWR 19:59	28%	7%	1.6%	68%
AA 1071 American Flight history →	CLT 18:21	EWR 20:30	36%	13%	1.0%	68%
AA 1811 American Flight history →	CLT 16:43	EWR 18:39	37%	13%	1.1%	59%
AA 2794 American Flight history →	CLT 20:06	EWR 22:12	38%	11%	1.0%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON