Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 16–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1826 CLT 10:00 → EYW 12:14 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest AA 3519 CLT 13:50 → EYW 16:11 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1826 American Flight history →	CLT 10:00	EYW 12:14	16%	3%	5.3%	77%
AA 2533 American Flight history →	CLT 16:32	EYW 18:48	23%	7%	6.1%	58%
AA 3519 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CLT 13:50	EYW 16:11	24%	4%	6.7%	87%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON