Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1865 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–51%.

Safest bet that day AA 1865 CLT 07:15 → FLL 09:16 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest F9 1983 CLT 18:41 → FLL 20:50 · 51% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1865 American Flight history →	CLT 07:15	FLL 09:16	12%	3%	1.1%	88%
B6 848 JetBlue Flight history →	CLT 06:50	FLL 08:56	15%	5%	1.8%	85%
AA 1877 American Flight history →	CLT 11:00	FLL 13:03	21%	4%	1.0%	82%
B6 2148 JetBlue Flight history →	CLT 09:00	FLL 11:06	26%	7%	2.2%	90%worse than usual
AA 1875 American Flight history →	CLT 13:18	FLL 15:20	29%	6%	1.1%	79%
AA 1861 American Flight history →	CLT 16:45	FLL 18:51	33%	8%	2.2%	64%
AA 321 American Flight history →	CLT 20:42	FLL 22:42	33%	10%	4.6%	68%
B6 1148 JetBlue Flight history →	CLT 15:10	FLL 17:16	43%	15%	3.1%	48%
F9 1983 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 18:41	FLL 20:50	51%	18%	5.7%	62%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON