Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1890 at 08:59 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 1890 CLT 08:59 → GRR 10:52 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 3113 CLT 22:28 → GRR 00:20 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1890 American Flight history →	CLT 08:59	GRR 10:52	13%	3%	0.8%	86%
AA 1891 American Flight history →	CLT 14:56	GRR 16:50	20%	7%	0.7%	56%
AA 3113 American Flight history →	CLT 22:28	GRR 00:20	24%	9%	0.7%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON