Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 17–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4054 CLT 21:25 → GSO 22:24 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 2126 CLT 18:07 → GSO 19:10 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4054 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CLT 21:25	GSO 22:24	17%	5%	0.8%	83%
AA 968 American Flight history →	CLT 13:03	GSO 13:57	20%	7%	0.7%	71%
AA 2802 American Flight history →	CLT 23:01	GSO 23:57	22%	7%	0.8%	70%
AA 1895 American Flight history →	CLT 16:50	GSO 17:47	25%	8%	0.7%	51%
AA 2126 American Flight history →	CLT 18:07	GSO 19:10	26%	9%	0.7%	51%
AA 5793 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 07:25	GSO 08:30	8%	3%	0.0%	92%
AA 5796 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 11:12	GSO 12:17	11%	4%	0.0%	89%
AA 5797 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 14:41	GSO 15:46	18%	7%	0.0%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON