Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 22–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3422 CLT 18:00 → GSP 19:00 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AA 5524 CLT 20:35 → GSP 21:30 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3422 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CLT 18:00	GSP 19:00	22%	7%	0.7%	76%
AA 5203 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 16:44	GSP 17:47	22%	9%	0.9%	56%
AA 5504 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 22:30	GSP 23:24	23%	8%	1.1%	54%
AA 5524 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 20:35	GSP 21:30	25%	8%	1.1%	55%
AA 5802 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 11:07	GSP 12:14	6%	0%	0.0%	94%
AA 5799 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 09:05	GSP 10:12	11%	3%	0.0%	89%
AA 5805 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 13:05	GSP 14:07	13%	9%	1.4%	87%
AA 6131 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 14:40	GSP 15:42	31%	7%	1.6%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON