Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5219 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 5219 CLT 07:20 → IAD 08:49 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1450 CLT 18:10 → IAD 19:40 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5219 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 07:20	IAD 08:49	7%	3%	0.9%	89%
AA 5220 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 11:05	IAD 12:38	12%	4%	0.9%	84%
AA 5549 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 20:31	IAD 22:05	19%	7%	1.3%	55%
AA 1242 American Flight history →	CLT 22:45	IAD 00:10	22%	6%	0.7%	41%
AA 1450 American Flight history →	CLT 18:10	IAD 19:40	23%	7%	0.7%	53%
UA 6279 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 06:00	IAD 07:29	8%	5%	2.6%	92%
UA 4012 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 10:27	IAD 11:55	15%	5%	0.0%	85%
UA 3998 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 19:44	IAD 21:20	18%	8%	5.5%	82%
UA 6203 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 14:53	IAD 16:30	23%	10%	1.4%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON