Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 575 at 07:09 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 575 CLT 07:09 → IAH 08:50 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 2395 CLT 17:57 → IAH 19:52 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 575 United Flight history →	CLT 07:09	IAH 08:50	10%	3%	0.8%	90%
AA 1930 American Flight history →	CLT 07:42	IAH 09:25	12%	3%	0.8%	92%
AA 1919 American Flight history →	CLT 12:30	IAH 14:12	17%	5%	0.8%	65%
AA 1920 American Flight history →	CLT 14:42	IAH 16:27	20%	6%	0.8%	72%
AA 2935 American Flight history →	CLT 18:41	IAH 20:33	22%	9%	0.8%	62%
AA 1840 American Flight history →	CLT 20:45	IAH 22:27	24%	8%	0.8%	71%
F9 2395 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 17:57	IAH 19:52	29%	14%	1.2%	62%
UA 6236 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 11:48	IAH 13:34	10%	4%	0.9%	90%
UA 4020 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 17:00	IAH 18:58	20%	13%	0.0%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON