Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2569 at 07:17 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 2569 CLT 07:17 → ILM 08:19 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 2826 CLT 20:29 → ILM 21:35 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 2569 American Flight history →	CLT 07:17	ILM 08:19	11%	3%	0.8%	87%
AA 1017 American Flight history →	CLT 22:25	ILM 23:33	24%	8%	0.7%	72%
AA 1933 American Flight history →	CLT 18:05	ILM 19:15	24%	8%	0.7%	76%
AA 2826 American Flight history →	CLT 20:29	ILM 21:35	27%	9%	0.8%	71%
AA 5822 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 11:15	ILM 12:33	12%	7%	1.6%	88%
AA 5809 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 13:05	ILM 14:19	14%	2%	0.0%	86%
AA 5820 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 09:20	ILM 10:38	18%	3%	0.0%	82%
AA 6116 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 16:24	ILM 17:41	29%	13%	1.4%	71%
AA 5823 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 14:36	ILM 15:50	32%	10%	0.0%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON