Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2030 at 07:07 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 2030 CLT 07:07 → LAS 08:44 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 1031 CLT 16:51 → LAS 18:35 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2030 American Flight history →	CLT 07:07	LAS 08:44	13%	2%	0.7%	93%
AA 2038 American Flight history →	CLT 11:26	LAS 13:06	21%	4%	0.7%	83%
AA 1275 American Flight history →	CLT 21:00	LAS 22:37	30%	9%	0.8%	63%
AA 750 American Flight history →	CLT 14:25	LAS 16:03	31%	7%	0.7%	72%
AA 596 American Flight history →	CLT 18:30	LAS 20:17	32%	9%	0.8%	69%
AA 1031 American Flight history →	CLT 16:51	LAS 18:35	33%	8%	0.8%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	55m Denver	DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526	6h 44m	92%	77%
American Details →	CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:25 → LAS 09:16AA 1584	6h 31m	87%	71%
Delta Details →	CLT 14:22 → ATL 15:37DL 2157	1h 03m Atlanta	ATL 16:40 → LAS 17:52DL 711	6h 30m	86%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON