Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 5599 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–48%.

Safest bet that day DL 5599 CLT 07:00 → LGA 08:57 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 3134 CLT 17:43 → LGA 19:44 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5599 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 07:00	LGA 08:57	9%	3%	0.9%	89%
AA 2043 American Flight history →	CLT 07:05	LGA 09:01	11%	3%	0.9%	88%
AA 1150 American Flight history →	CLT 09:20	LGA 11:15	17%	4%	0.9%	77%
AA 2033 American Flight history →	CLT 11:39	LGA 13:35	23%	7%	0.9%	65%
DL 5828 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 17:05	LGA 19:12	23%	10%	1.0%	60%
AA 2036 American Flight history →	CLT 13:07	LGA 15:05	26%	8%	0.9%	82%
AA 2068 American Flight history →	CLT 21:37	LGA 23:30	30%	11%	1.2%	66%
AA 1942 American Flight history →	CLT 15:17	LGA 17:15	34%	12%	1.1%	65%
AA 1722 American Flight history →	CLT 16:26	LGA 18:29	37%	14%	0.9%	54%
AA 1060 American Flight history →	CLT 17:38	LGA 19:41	38%	15%	0.9%	62%
F9 3134 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 17:43	LGA 19:44	48%	22%	1.9%	56%
DL 5068 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 09:36	LGA 11:32	17%	9%	6.5%	83%
DL 5051 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 11:50	LGA 13:50	23%	7%	6.7%	77%
DL 5046 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 14:37	LGA 16:40	31%	17%	13.6%	69%
DL 5047 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 20:12	LGA 22:21	33%	18%	10.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON