Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4146 at 11:30 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 4146 CLT 11:30 → LIT 12:45 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 3692 CLT 20:25 → LIT 21:38 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4146 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CLT 11:30	LIT 12:45	12%	3%	0.8%	94%
AA 6228 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CLT 07:33	LIT 08:50	13%	5%	0.8%	72%
AA 3633 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CLT 16:54	LIT 18:10	19%	5%	0.9%	82%
AA 3444 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CLT 22:46	LIT 23:56	22%	4%	0.9%	73%
AA 3692 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CLT 20:25	LIT 21:38	24%	4%	0.8%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON