Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2084 at 07:28 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 2084 CLT 07:28 → MCO 09:13 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest F9 2451 CLT 20:02 → MCO 22:01 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2084 American Flight history →	CLT 07:28	MCO 09:13	11%	3%	13.0%	86%
AA 2074 American Flight history →	CLT 10:09	MCO 11:57	13%	3%	15.6%	90%
AA 2127 American Flight history →	CLT 11:13	MCO 13:01	16%	4%	15.9%	83%
AA 3271 American Flight history →	CLT 13:06	MCO 14:55	22%	6%	16.0%	70%
F9 1445 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 12:24	MCO 14:18	25%	8%	19.5%	84%
AA 1879 American Flight history →	CLT 22:29	MCO 00:17	27%	7%	17.3%	64%
AA 2082 American Flight history →	CLT 14:55	MCO 16:44	28%	7%	16.7%	52%
AA 1783 American Flight history →	CLT 19:05	MCO 21:00	30%	10%	17.3%	46%
AA 2100 American Flight history →	CLT 16:49	MCO 18:44	30%	9%	17.4%	58%
AA 3200 American Flight history →	CLT 20:15	MCO 22:00	31%	10%	17.4%	61%
F9 1555 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 22:59	MCO 00:54	31%	12%	17.9%	76%
AA 612 American Flight history →	CLT 18:05	MCO 20:01	31%	11%	17.4%	54%
AA 1660 American Flight history →	CLT 15:42	MCO 17:31	31%	9%	17.3%	51%
F9 2451 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 20:02	MCO 22:01	32%	13%	18.2%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON