Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 23–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5217 CLT 22:45 → MDT 00:25 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time Riskiest AA 5275 CLT 15:30 → MDT 17:13 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5217 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 22:45	MDT 00:25	23%	6%	1.7%	66%
AA 5275 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 15:30	MDT 17:13	24%	7%	1.2%	61%
AA 5836 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 07:40	MDT 09:27	6%	0%	0.0%	94%
AA 5832 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 13:12	MDT 15:00	21%	3%	0.0%	79%
AA 5835 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 09:45	MDT 11:37	21%	5%	0.0%	79%
AA 5989 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 17:10	MDT 19:00	34%	20%	0.0%	66%
AA 5990 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 18:39	MDT 20:28	40%	24%	1.3%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON