Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2110 at 09:10 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 2110 CLT 09:10 → MEM 10:00 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2392 CLT 22:56 → MEM 23:45 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2110 American Flight history →	CLT 09:10	MEM 10:00	13%	3%	0.7%	89%
AA 2116 American Flight history →	CLT 13:23	MEM 14:09	16%	5%	0.7%	68%
AA 5287 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 14:52	MEM 15:53	21%	6%	1.0%	69%
AA 5269 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 17:15	MEM 18:18	23%	10%	1.1%	56%
AA 2392 American Flight history →	CLT 22:56	MEM 23:45	28%	6%	0.8%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON