Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5294 at 09:10 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 5294 CLT 09:10 → MHT 11:37 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 5033 CLT 20:33 → MHT 22:51 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5294 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 09:10	MHT 11:37	13%	3%	1.2%	83%
AA 5288 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 14:26	MHT 16:46	20%	5%	1.1%	70%
AA 5033 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 20:33	MHT 22:51	25%	4%	1.4%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON