Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1165 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 1165 CLT 05:15 → MIA 07:20 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 3699 CLT 18:48 → MIA 21:05 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1165 American Flight history →	CLT 05:15	MIA 07:20	7%	3%	1.1%	92%
AA 770 American Flight history →	CLT 07:05	MIA 09:12	13%	2%	1.1%	83%
AA 1436 American Flight history →	CLT 09:25	MIA 11:37	17%	3%	2.1%	86%
AA 969 American Flight history →	CLT 11:02	MIA 13:11	19%	5%	2.6%	88%
AA 2912 American Flight history →	CLT 13:30	MIA 15:38	26%	8%	1.4%	75%
AA 1596 American Flight history →	CLT 22:39	MIA 00:46	30%	8%	1.4%	60%
AA 2231 American Flight history →	CLT 16:40	MIA 18:57	33%	10%	1.5%	64%
AA 488 American Flight history →	CLT 18:00	MIA 20:21	34%	10%	1.9%	63%
AA 2321 American Flight history →	CLT 20:15	MIA 22:21	37%	10%	1.4%	51%
F9 3699 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 18:48	MIA 21:05	41%	16%	4.2%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON