Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2491 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 2491 CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 2151 CLT 15:26 → MSP 17:07 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2491 Delta Flight history →	CLT 06:20	MSP 07:59	5%	3%	0.7%	93%
AA 2154 American Flight history →	CLT 08:25	MSP 10:04	10%	3%	0.7%	83%
DL 1827 Delta Flight history →	CLT 11:14	MSP 13:00	11%	4%	0.6%	81%
AA 2153 American Flight history →	CLT 11:15	MSP 12:54	14%	4%	0.6%	85%
DL 2819 Delta Flight history →	CLT 14:57	MSP 16:44	15%	5%	0.7%	75%
DL 2820 Delta Flight history →	CLT 19:14	MSP 21:00	19%	6%	0.7%	79%
AA 2176 American Flight history →	CLT 21:43	MSP 23:22	22%	7%	0.7%	75%
AA 2151 American Flight history →	CLT 15:26	MSP 17:07	23%	6%	0.6%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON