Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2180 at 07:37 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 2180 CLT 07:37 → MSY 08:38 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2203 CLT 16:34 → MSY 17:41 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2180 American Flight history →	CLT 07:37	MSY 08:38	14%	4%	0.9%	90%
AA 2170 American Flight history →	CLT 11:55	MSY 12:59	19%	6%	0.9%	63%
AA 2174 American Flight history →	CLT 14:34	MSY 15:36	24%	7%	0.9%	77%
AA 608 American Flight history →	CLT 22:56	MSY 23:59	30%	10%	4.7%	69%
AA 2203 American Flight history →	CLT 16:34	MSY 17:41	31%	9%	1.7%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON