Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5555 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 5555 CLT 07:30 → MYR 08:36 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 3123 CLT 20:44 → MYR 21:43 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5555 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 07:30	MYR 08:36	15%	4%	1.8%	87%
AA 2886 American Flight history →	CLT 18:52	MYR 20:03	24%	11%	1.0%	68%
AA 2212 American Flight history →	CLT 16:19	MYR 17:25	25%	11%	1.2%	60%
AA 2214 American Flight history →	CLT 14:30	MYR 15:31	25%	8%	1.2%	70%
AA 3123 American Flight history →	CLT 20:44	MYR 21:43	27%	11%	0.8%	65%
AA 5883 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 11:20	MYR 12:36	6%	0%	0.0%	94%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON