Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 16–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2225 CLT 11:20 → OMA 12:53 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 961 CLT 22:41 → OMA 00:19 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2225 American Flight history →	CLT 11:20	OMA 12:53	16%	3%	0.7%	86%
AA 3115 American Flight history →	CLT 14:44	OMA 16:17	20%	5%	0.7%	58%
AA 961 American Flight history →	CLT 22:41	OMA 00:19	21%	5%	0.7%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON