tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:59, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Ontario on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3036 American Flight history → CLT 20:43 ONT 22:34 28% 8% 0.7% 62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 8h 08m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → CLT 18:10 → SLC 20:29DL 2070 2h 30m Salt Lake City SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614 8h 38m 99% 84%
SouthwestDetails → CLT 07:35 → MDW 08:40WN 3048 3h 05m Chicago MDW 11:45 → ONT 13:50WN 2846 9h 15m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:41 → PHX 09:05AA 1678 1h 40m Phoenix PHX 10:45 → ONT 12:02AA 2244 7h 21m 96% 80%
UnitedDetails → CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963 58m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 7h 07m 92% 79%
AmericanDetails → CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180 3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:40 → ONT 11:45AA 2242 9h 00m 100% 77%
SouthwestDetails → CLT 10:35 → DAL 12:05WN 148 2h 20m Dallas DAL 14:25 → ONT 15:25WN 1375 7h 50m 100% 76%
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:41 → DFW 09:36AA 1707 2h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:20 → ONT 13:22AA 2239 8h 41m 99% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON