Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2771 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 2771 CLT 08:05 → ORD 09:22 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 2488 CLT 18:26 → ORD 19:51 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2771 United Flight history →	CLT 08:05	ORD 09:22	10%	3%	0.7%	81%
AA 2908 American Flight history →	CLT 11:01	ORD 12:19	11%	4%	0.9%	90%
AA 1038 American Flight history →	CLT 09:42	ORD 11:00	11%	4%	1.0%	83%
UA 4680 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CLT 10:35	ORD 11:59	11%	5%	1.4%	86%
AA 2843 American Flight history →	CLT 07:46	ORD 09:02	13%	3%	1.0%	86%
UA 3442 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 13:06	ORD 14:30	13%	4%	0.9%	74%
AA 836 American Flight history →	CLT 13:05	ORD 14:20	16%	5%	0.9%	69%
AA 2080 American Flight history →	CLT 14:35	ORD 15:56	17%	7%	0.9%	74%
AA 3014 American Flight history →	CLT 22:39	ORD 00:01	17%	6%	1.2%	65%
AA 536 American Flight history →	CLT 16:16	ORD 17:39	22%	7%	0.9%	68%
AA 627 American Flight history →	CLT 20:27	ORD 22:00	22%	7%	1.0%	61%
AA 2907 American Flight history →	CLT 15:25	ORD 16:46	22%	6%	0.9%	51%
UA 5751 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CLT 18:40	ORD 20:18	26%	8%	1.8%	76%
AA 2488 American Flight history →	CLT 18:26	ORD 19:51	27%	7%	0.9%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON