Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5326 at 09:05 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 5326 CLT 09:05 → ORF 10:35 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 5622 CLT 20:24 → ORF 21:45 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5326 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 09:05	ORF 10:35	16%	4%	0.9%	79%
AA 2254 American Flight history →	CLT 11:20	ORF 12:34	17%	5%	0.8%	83%
AA 2255 American Flight history →	CLT 12:35	ORF 13:49	17%	5%	0.8%	76%
AA 2674 American Flight history →	CLT 22:29	ORF 23:45	27%	7%	0.8%	70%
AA 5339 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 16:25	ORF 17:54	28%	9%	0.9%	59%
AA 2913 American Flight history →	CLT 18:18	ORF 19:40	29%	9%	0.9%	53%
AA 5622 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 20:24	ORF 21:45	33%	9%	1.0%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON