Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2278 at 07:23 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 2278 CLT 07:23 → PBI 09:17 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2270 CLT 14:40 → PBI 16:37 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2278 American Flight history →	CLT 07:23	PBI 09:17	11%	3%	1.6%	90%
AA 2279 American Flight history →	CLT 11:04	PBI 12:58	22%	7%	1.6%	83%
AA 1764 American Flight history →	CLT 22:56	PBI 00:51	28%	12%	2.2%	62%
AA 1912 American Flight history →	CLT 20:50	PBI 22:44	33%	13%	2.2%	59%
AA 2270 American Flight history →	CLT 14:40	PBI 16:37	35%	13%	7.6%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON