Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3064 American Flight history →	CLT 18:05	PDX 20:40	21%	6%	0.7%	62%
AA 3112 American Flight history →	CLT 21:27	PDX 23:55	22%	6%	0.8%	55%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	3h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → PDX 12:38DL 2167	9h 18m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → PDX 10:27DL 539	7h 57m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:59 → ATL 08:13DL 2275	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	8h 59m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	CLT 11:14 → MSP 13:00DL 1827	2h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008	9h 21m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42DL 1405	1h 12m Detroit	DTW 08:54 → PDX 10:36DL 2171	7h 36m	96%	86%
United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	3h 00m Denver	DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455	9h 33m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	CLT 18:10 → SLC 20:29DL 2070	2h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → PDX 23:44DL 1373	8h 34m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	CLT 12:19 → ATL 13:32DL 3190	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503	9h 37m	100%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CLT 18:00 → DFW 20:00AA 2409	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:49 → PDX 22:51AA 2283	7h 51m	71%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON