Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2727 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 2727 CLT 05:45 → PHL 07:27 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 1328 CLT 22:02 → PHL 23:46 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2727 American Flight history →	CLT 05:45	PHL 07:27	6%	2%	0.8%	91%
AA 3046 American Flight history →	CLT 07:55	PHL 09:41	12%	3%	0.8%	87%
AA 2291 American Flight history →	CLT 09:29	PHL 11:12	13%	4%	0.7%	72%
AA 2498 American Flight history →	CLT 11:00	PHL 12:43	15%	5%	0.8%	79%
AA 2573 American Flight history →	CLT 13:02	PHL 14:50	18%	6%	0.7%	76%
F9 2388 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 10:51	PHL 12:42	19%	6%	1.3%	79%
AA 2189 American Flight history →	CLT 22:29	PHL 00:22	21%	7%	0.9%	74%
AA 1838 American Flight history →	CLT 16:44	PHL 18:36	23%	9%	0.8%	70%
AA 2879 American Flight history →	CLT 18:12	PHL 20:12	24%	9%	0.8%	73%
F9 1328 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 22:02	PHL 23:46	38%	13%	1.5%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON