Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1678 at 07:41 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 1678 CLT 07:41 → PHX 09:05 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2923 CLT 20:35 → PHX 21:53 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1678 American Flight history →	CLT 07:41	PHX 09:05	14%	3%	0.7%	89%
AA 1986 American Flight history →	CLT 09:41	PHX 11:04	14%	3%	0.7%	90%
AA 588 American Flight history →	CLT 11:37	PHX 12:56	17%	4%	0.7%	87%
AA 2902 American Flight history →	CLT 13:13	PHX 14:32	22%	5%	0.7%	81%
AA 3220 American Flight history →	CLT 14:31	PHX 15:50	27%	6%	0.7%	61%
AA 1073 American Flight history →	CLT 18:23	PHX 19:51	27%	8%	0.8%	61%
AA 1779 American Flight history →	CLT 16:50	PHX 18:14	29%	8%	0.8%	72%
AA 2923 American Flight history →	CLT 20:35	PHX 21:53	30%	8%	0.8%	59%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	CLT 06:35 → BNA 07:00WN 1167	1h 05m Nashville	BNA 08:05 → PHX 09:40WN 3770	6h 05m	96%	86%
United Details →	CLT 07:09 → IAH 08:50UA 575	50m Houston	IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895	6h 25m	82%	71%
American Details →	CLT 11:30 → DFW 13:16AA 1285	1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:30 → PHX 14:57AA 2108	6h 27m	95%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON