Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2310 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 2310 CLT 08:05 → PIT 09:30 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1749 CLT 20:48 → PIT 22:15 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2310 American Flight history →	CLT 08:05	PIT 09:30	9%	3%	0.7%	91%
AA 2295 American Flight history →	CLT 11:50	PIT 13:18	16%	5%	0.7%	69%
AA 2309 American Flight history →	CLT 13:10	PIT 14:36	16%	5%	0.7%	80%
AA 1962 American Flight history →	CLT 22:47	PIT 00:16	19%	7%	0.7%	73%
AA 5602 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 17:50	PIT 19:29	22%	8%	0.9%	55%
AA 1749 American Flight history →	CLT 20:48	PIT 22:15	23%	9%	0.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON