Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5349 at 11:22 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 5349 CLT 11:22 → PNS 12:17 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1007 CLT 23:01 → PNS 23:46 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5349 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 11:22	PNS 12:17	13%	5%	0.9%	92%
AA 2316 American Flight history →	CLT 09:21	PNS 10:09	14%	4%	0.7%	82%
AA 5604 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 15:15	PNS 16:10	22%	10%	0.9%	52%
AA 5429 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 18:16	PNS 19:10	23%	12%	1.0%	69%
AA 1007 American Flight history →	CLT 23:01	PNS 23:46	26%	9%	1.0%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON