Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2336 at 08:55 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 2336 CLT 08:55 → PVD 10:57 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 2566 CLT 20:52 → PVD 22:57 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2336 American Flight history →	CLT 08:55	PVD 10:57	9%	3%	0.7%	86%
AA 2318 American Flight history →	CLT 13:44	PVD 15:48	14%	5%	0.7%	69%
AA 2338 American Flight history →	CLT 16:20	PVD 18:30	18%	6%	0.7%	76%
AA 2566 American Flight history →	CLT 20:52	PVD 22:57	22%	6%	0.8%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON