Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 5579 at 09:27, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 5579 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 09:27	RAP 11:17	13%	3%	1.3%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rapid City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Rapid City is 2 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180	3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:40 → RAP 12:11AA 3891 · flown by Envoy	8h 26m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	1h 34m Minneapolis	MSP 09:33 → RAP 10:18DL 3971 · flown by SkyWest	5h 58m	97%	87%
American Details →	CLT 15:04 → DFW 16:58AA 1709	3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:03 → RAP 21:31AA 3567 · flown by Envoy	8h 27m	99%	84%
American Details →	CLT 11:30 → DFW 13:16AA 1285	1h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:58 → RAP 16:20AA 3762 · flown by Envoy	6h 50m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	CLT 11:14 → MSP 13:00DL 1827	1h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 14:45 → RAP 15:29DL 3851 · flown by SkyWest	6h 15m	98%	83%
American Details →	CLT 09:42 → ORD 11:00AA 1038	2h 20m Chicago	ORD 13:20 → RAP 14:55AA 3767 · flown by Envoy	7h 13m	97%	83%
United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	2h 58m Denver	DEN 13:25 → RAP 14:46UA 5556 · flown by SkyWest	8h 06m	98%	82%
United Details →	CLT 16:08 → DEN 17:55UA 2609	3h 15m Denver	DEN 21:10 → RAP 22:25UA 2781	8h 17m	96%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON