Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2362 at 07:06 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 2362 CLT 07:06 → RDU 08:04 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 3178 CLT 20:56 → RDU 21:54 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2362 American Flight history →	CLT 07:06	RDU 08:04	9%	3%	1.1%	94%
AA 2381 American Flight history →	CLT 09:21	RDU 10:23	14%	4%	0.9%	76%
AA 2363 American Flight history →	CLT 11:04	RDU 12:02	17%	5%	0.8%	87%
AA 2390 American Flight history →	CLT 13:18	RDU 14:17	21%	7%	0.8%	69%
AA 2402 American Flight history →	CLT 14:26	RDU 15:25	24%	8%	0.8%	62%
AA 494 American Flight history →	CLT 22:57	RDU 23:58	28%	8%	0.8%	74%
AA 2379 American Flight history →	CLT 16:33	RDU 17:36	28%	9%	0.8%	57%
AA 2394 American Flight history →	CLT 18:11	RDU 19:18	31%	9%	0.8%	57%
AA 3178 American Flight history →	CLT 20:56	RDU 21:54	33%	9%	0.8%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON