Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2415 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 2415 CLT 07:10 → RIC 08:21 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2412 CLT 18:00 → RIC 19:21 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2415 American Flight history →	CLT 07:10	RIC 08:21	8%	2%	0.8%	90%
AA 5368 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 11:10	RIC 12:32	15%	5%	0.8%	72%
AA 5370 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 13:46	RIC 15:08	20%	6%	0.8%	62%
AA 993 American Flight history →	CLT 21:36	RIC 22:50	23%	7%	0.8%	74%
AA 1882 American Flight history →	CLT 22:49	RIC 00:04	27%	7%	0.8%	68%
AA 5478 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 16:15	RIC 17:38	27%	8%	0.8%	50%
AA 2412 American Flight history →	CLT 18:00	RIC 19:21	30%	9%	0.8%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON