Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5377 at 09:24 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 5377 CLT 09:24 → ROC 11:35 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 3155 CLT 20:38 → ROC 22:27 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5377 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 09:24	ROC 11:35	10%	3%	0.7%	79%
AA 2424 American Flight history →	CLT 16:23	ROC 18:15	25%	7%	0.9%	62%
AA 3155 American Flight history →	CLT 20:38	ROC 22:27	30%	8%	0.9%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON