Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2427 at 07:11 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 2427 CLT 07:11 → RSW 09:08 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 2442 CLT 16:48 → RSW 18:51 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2427 American Flight history →	CLT 07:11	RSW 09:08	13%	3%	15.5%	82%
AA 2444 American Flight history →	CLT 13:10	RSW 15:09	27%	7%	13.6%	69%
AA 1176 American Flight history →	CLT 20:56	RSW 22:52	31%	12%	13.8%	71%
AA 2442 American Flight history →	CLT 16:48	RSW 18:51	34%	11%	17.2%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON