Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2471 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 2471 CLT 07:15 → SAN 09:00 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 3322 CLT 19:50 → SAN 21:45 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2471 American Flight history →	CLT 07:15	SAN 09:00	20%	4%	0.7%	82%
AA 466 American Flight history →	CLT 11:15	SAN 13:05	22%	6%	0.7%	80%
AA 2056 American Flight history →	CLT 16:54	SAN 18:50	31%	9%	0.7%	59%
AA 3322 American Flight history →	CLT 19:50	SAN 21:45	33%	8%	0.7%	56%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186	1h 24m Atlanta	ATL 08:05 → SAN 09:26DL 725	6h 56m	98%	85%
Southwest Details →	CLT 06:35 → BNA 07:00WN 1167	1h 05m Nashville	BNA 08:05 → SAN 10:15WN 659	6h 40m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	CLT 08:01 → ATL 09:15DL 3156	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → SAN 11:34DL 712	6h 33m	90%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON