Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2487 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 2487 CLT 07:05 → SAT 09:02 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2441 CLT 20:19 → SAT 22:16 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2487 American Flight history →	CLT 07:05	SAT 09:02	10%	3%	0.7%	89%
AA 2496 American Flight history →	CLT 14:58	SAT 16:57	22%	7%	0.7%	58%
AA 1258 American Flight history →	CLT 18:34	SAT 20:40	25%	9%	0.8%	72%
AA 2441 American Flight history →	CLT 20:19	SAT 22:16	28%	10%	0.8%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON