Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 16–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5383 CLT 13:10 → SAV 14:27 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest AA 1517 CLT 22:45 → SAV 23:57 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5383 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 13:10	SAV 14:27	16%	4%	1.0%	75%
AA 5382 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 19:15	SAV 20:32	22%	7%	1.3%	69%
AA 5196 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 15:50	SAV 17:07	23%	8%	1.0%	38%
AA 5601 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 20:56	SAV 22:11	23%	8%	1.3%	49%
AA 1517 American Flight history →	CLT 22:45	SAV 23:57	24%	8%	0.7%	66%
AA 5890 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 11:10	SAV 12:35	8%	0%	0.0%	92%
AA 5910 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 09:10	SAV 10:31	17%	7%	0.0%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON