Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 13–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5395 CLT 09:39 → SDF 11:24 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time Riskiest AA 1775 CLT 17:59 → SDF 19:31 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5395 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 09:39	SDF 11:24	13%	4%	0.8%	69%
AA 5397 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 13:26	SDF 15:03	16%	4%	0.8%	79%
AA 5161 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 21:03	SDF 22:39	18%	8%	0.9%	54%
AA 671 American Flight history →	CLT 23:02	SDF 00:34	19%	7%	0.8%	73%
AA 1775 American Flight history →	CLT 17:59	SDF 19:31	20%	8%	0.8%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON