Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2525 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 2525 CLT 07:05 → SEA 09:47 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 1674 CLT 20:19 → SEA 23:00 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2525 American Flight history →	CLT 07:05	SEA 09:47	14%	3%	0.7%	86%
AA 2529 American Flight history →	CLT 09:25	SEA 12:07	18%	4%	0.7%	72%
AA 2107 American Flight history →	CLT 15:24	SEA 18:05	26%	7%	0.7%	70%
AA 751 American Flight history →	CLT 17:40	SEA 20:25	31%	8%	0.7%	63%
AA 1674 American Flight history →	CLT 20:19	SEA 23:00	33%	9%	0.7%	61%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	7h 39m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:59 → ATL 08:13DL 2275	1h 37m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	8h 14m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186	59m Atlanta	ATL 07:40 → SEA 09:54DL 444	7h 24m	95%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON