Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2562 at 09:40 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 2562 CLT 09:40 → SFO 12:19 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time Riskiest AA 1580 CLT 20:18 → SFO 22:48 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2562 American Flight history →	CLT 09:40	SFO 12:19	20%	6%	0.8%	59%
AA 1687 American Flight history →	CLT 12:08	SFO 14:37	22%	7%	0.7%	67%
AA 2556 American Flight history →	CLT 17:29	SFO 20:06	28%	11%	0.7%	33%
AA 2411 American Flight history →	CLT 19:31	SFO 22:07	32%	11%	0.7%	58%
AA 1580 American Flight history →	CLT 20:18	SFO 22:48	33%	11%	0.7%	51%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693	7h 50m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	CLT 09:43 → ATL 11:00DL 3174	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750	8h 07m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	1h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 09:24 → SFO 11:32DL 2078	8h 12m	97%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON