Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5225 at 11:25 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 5225 CLT 11:25 → SGF 12:52 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 4017 CLT 20:15 → SGF 21:34 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5225 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 11:25	SGF 12:52	14%	4%	1.4%	83%
AA 5407 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 16:15	SGF 17:42	19%	5%	1.4%	70%
AA 4017 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CLT 20:15	SGF 21:34	26%	6%	0.9%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON