Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5624 at 09:07 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 5624 CLT 09:07 → SHV 10:45 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 6412 CLT 20:20 → SHV 21:51 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5624 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 09:07	SHV 10:45	13%	5%	0.7%	82%
OH 5119 PSA	CLT 16:17	SHV 17:53	20%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 6412 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CLT 20:20	SHV 21:51	29%	10%	1.3%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON