Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 783 at 11:03 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–42%.

Safest bet that day AA 783 CLT 11:03 → SJU 14:50 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest F9 3004 CLT 20:28 → SJU 00:23 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 783 American Flight history →	CLT 11:03	SJU 14:50	18%	4%	0.8%	85%
AA 2830 American Flight history →	CLT 19:08	SJU 22:59	22%	7%	0.8%	67%
F9 3004 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 20:28	SJU 00:23	42%	15%	1.4%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON