Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2602 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 2602 CLT 09:00 → SLC 11:20 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 2611 CLT 18:44 → SLC 21:12 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2602 American Flight history →	CLT 09:00	SLC 11:20	13%	3%	0.7%	83%
DL 2070 Delta Flight history →	CLT 18:10	SLC 20:29	20%	6%	0.7%	85%
AA 2611 American Flight history →	CLT 18:44	SLC 21:12	27%	9%	0.6%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	CLT 08:01 → ATL 09:15DL 3156	55m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	6h 09m	90%	79%
Delta Details →	CLT 09:43 → ATL 11:00DL 3174	56m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	6h 07m	90%	78%
American Details →	CLT 11:30 → DFW 13:16AA 1285	54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:10 → SLC 15:52AA 2594	6h 22m	80%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON