tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:59, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2508 American Flight history → CLT 18:31 SMF 21:03 27% 10% 0.7% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904 8h 30m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491 2h 25m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 8h 49m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → CLT 18:10 → SLC 20:29DL 2070 2h 35m Salt Lake City SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582 8h 34m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → CLT 11:56 → LAX 13:55AA 1213 3h 23m Los Angeles LAX 17:18 → SMF 18:51AA 6346 · flown by SkyWest 9h 55m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963 3h 08m Denver DEN 13:35 → SMF 15:10UA 662 9h 30m 99% 81%
SouthwestDetails → CLT 07:35 → MDW 08:40WN 3048 1h 40m Chicago MDW 10:20 → SMF 12:40WN 2094 8h 05m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → CLT 16:50 → LAX 18:55AA 1499 2h 49m Los Angeles LAX 21:44 → SMF 23:20AA 4908 · flown by SkyWest 9h 30m 95% 79%
SouthwestDetails → CLT 07:10 → BWI 08:45WN 4695 3h 40m Baltimore BWI 12:25 → SMF 15:00WN 4476 10h 50m 100% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → CLT 14:33 → LAX 16:30AA 1502 48m Los Angeles LAX 17:18 → SMF 18:51AA 6346 · flown by SkyWest 7h 18m 71% 59%
AmericanDetails → CLT 18:23 → PHX 19:51AA 1073 57m Phoenix PHX 20:48 → SMF 22:42AA 2048 7h 19m 73% 49%
AmericanDetails → CLT 19:52 → DFW 21:44AA 1698 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:30 → SMF 23:59AA 509 7h 07m 66% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON