Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: American via DFW, leaving 08:56, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 358 American Flight history →	CLT 18:00	SNA 20:06	26%	6%	0.8%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	2h 58m Denver	DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707	9h 17m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	3h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SNA 12:54DL 2081	9h 34m	98%	82%
United Details →	CLT 07:09 → IAH 08:50UA 575	3h 40m Houston	IAH 12:30 → SNA 14:03UA 2780	9h 54m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42DL 1405	1h 43m Detroit	DTW 09:25 → SNA 11:05DL 1857	8h 05m	98%	81%
United Details →	CLT 11:10 → EWR 13:16UA 3448 · flown by Republic	3h 44m Newark	EWR 17:00 → SNA 20:06UA 1690	11h 56m	100%	80%
United Details →	CLT 16:08 → DEN 17:55UA 2609	2h 37m Denver	DEN 20:32 → SNA 22:01UA 725	8h 53m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:59 → ATL 08:13DL 2275	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329	8h 32m	100%	80%
American Details →	CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180	2h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:40 → SNA 10:48AA 2672	8h 03m	98%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON