Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2733 at 07:37 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 2733 CLT 07:37 → STL 08:33 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 1173 CLT 16:40 → STL 17:50 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2733 American Flight history →	CLT 07:37	STL 08:33	9%	3%	0.7%	92%
AA 2717 American Flight history →	CLT 11:00	STL 11:55	13%	4%	0.7%	83%
AA 459 American Flight history →	CLT 22:56	STL 23:58	21%	6%	0.7%	75%
AA 2686 American Flight history →	CLT 18:59	STL 20:03	22%	7%	0.7%	75%
AA 2731 American Flight history →	CLT 16:21	STL 17:21	22%	6%	0.7%	69%
WN 1173 Southwest Flight history →	CLT 16:40	STL 17:50	31%	6%	0.5%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON